I warned since 2019 about the danger of accelerating retroactions of global warming
The accelerated melting phase of the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica began, it is the size of Florida, it can raise the oceans by 30 cm. and destabilize other adjacent glaciers whose melting would raise the water another 3 meters.
A Master Plan to Save the Planet must say what must be done and also how to do it. In this sense, the first priority is financing. Without intensive capital for a long time there will be no long-term solutions
On 10/02/2019, I published the book “Efecto Casandra. Arctic ‘Methane Bomb’ Analysis: Unanswered Question to Scientists About Abrupt Clathrate Reversal in 2025/30”.
In it, I affirm that “by the average of 2030, it will reach 450 ppm of CO2, if we continue at the same rate of contamination, and as a result of the fateful 2º C that will activate the positive feedbacks that will cause the abrupt thawing of the arctic continental permafrost and after submarine clathrates, which are already showing an active thawing process. At the same time the floating ice of the North Pole during the summers will have disappeared, along with the albedo effect and the Arctic Ocean will be warming to 5º/7º C triggering the release of methane gas hydrates from the bottom. Then the global temperature will shoot up to ~4º/6º C and up to 12º C at both poles, starting the accelerated melting of Greenland and Antarctica, being able to rise the oceans up to 60 meters in years and not in millennia, flooding all coastal cities and causing 600 million simultaneous environmental refugees.
In other words, I clearly warned about the high probability that feedbacks or positive feedbacks will occur in ecosystems and this will intensify from the 2025/2030 period, leading to tipping points that will lead to abrupt accelerations in global warming.
On 11/23/2020 I also published through the Spanish Academic Editorial the book: “MasterEarth to save the world. Clathrate rifle active in 2025/30?: To avoid the catastrophe there is no time left, we must already invest 2% per year of world GDP. They would apply extreme measures.”
I affirm that “humanity is going through a deep crisis of accelerated growth due to technological change, Global Warming, overpopulation, ecological variations and the potential for hostile alien intrusion before the end of the present 21st century. You need to bring together the best human resources to ask the right questions and get the right answers you want.
Under this premise, the Gaia Team convenes renowned thinkers, scientists and qualified humanists to develop a Master Plan to save the Planet and a new Social Contract with a view to the XXII Century, which contemplates the development of a Type I pre-civilization technology, with a universal language, Planetary Eco Government, Global Direct Digital Democracy, International Council of Sciences, Planetary Army, minimum life income for the entire population to face labor replacement by robotics and AI, abolition of extreme poverty throughout the world, stop Global Warming, decontaminate and ensure peace on all continents. We discussed this with William J. Ripple (PhD), Director of the Alliance of World Scientists.”
The Gaia Team is an initiative that consists of bringing together the wise men of the Earth to work as a team to provide feasible and operational solutions that renew hope.
It is a goodwill effort. All the participants of the Gaia Team are asked to work and collaborate in the task to help Humanity in crisis, in order to jointly elaborate a Master Plan to Save the Planet that is logical, feasible and effective.
With this idea in mind, send 18 e-mails to qualified thinkers and scientists around the world inviting them to participate. No one answered, except Matthieu Ricard’s secretary, who explained that he himself was already engaged in various projects and caring for his sick mother.
Not discouraged, I sent another email to William J. Ripple (PhD), Oregon State University, Director of the Alliance of World Scientists. He answered me in just over 2 hours, showing great interest in the subject and asking me for more information.
This was what I wrote to him:
“A Master Plan to Save the Planet must say what has to be done and also how to do it. In this sense, the first priority is financing. Without intensive capital for a long time there will be no long-term solutions. It needs to be applied between 2 to 3% of world GDP annually to solve the triple scourge of hunger, overpopulation and global warming.
Once the nations of the world decide to allocate the vital funds, the issue is in which programs to apply them, how to do it, for how long and how to control the administration of funds so that there is no corruption in the system.
The second most important point is to proceed with the immediate planting of 30 billion kiri trees per year, to then cut down their trunks and bury them, in order to capture CO2 and devotake it underground.
The third point is how to coordinate all the necessary actions. For this, a Planetary Eco Government system is proposed, centralizing the decision-making capacity. This supranational structure would be controlled by a form of Global Direct Digital Democracy, advised by a Science Council, made up of scientists from all nations.
The fourth point is to limit overpopulation (one child per family) which is what accelerates pollution and consumption. The planet only supports 5,000 million inhabitants. And if we consider non-renewable resources in the long term, the number is reduced to 1,000 million. The planet has finite resources, it does not support overpopulation with exponential growth.
It’s been 40 years since people started talking about Global Warming, why hasn’t anything effective been done until now? Because the system of economic and political organization that we have does not allow it. If we want to save the Planet, we must change the system of social, economic and political organization, integrating a new supranational scale. Go directly to a Type I technological pre-civilization.
Now, the problem we all have is the little time we have left to act preventively. In 2030 it will reach 450 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. The Arctic Ocean will completely thaw in the summers and overheat. This will allow the immense deposits of subsea methane gas hydrates to be released. An explosive chain reaction will occur. And it is possible that the phenomenon will be activated earlier, between 2025 and 2030, when the floating ice of the North Pole has been reduced to 50/75%.
Determining the time of this event horizon is the job of scientists. It is something that is urgent to do. We are all at risk and there is not enough awareness about the problem.
What do I propose? Scientists who want to participate will be emailed questions on these topics for feedback and ideas. Then a report and a book will be made, which can serve the political system and governments that make decisions.”
William replied that the points were fine, but that a similar initiative already existed: the Drawdown Project. And he asked me what he thought about this.
I answered:
“The Drawdown Project has a time projection for 2040 and 2060. The point is that we have time to apply a comprehensive response to the Global Warming problem until 2025, hopefully, practically the measures should be taken now, immediately .
The main point is the perception of environmental risk based on the possible “clathrate rifle”. As I explained to you, by 2030 we will reach 450 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, the floating ice at the North Pole will thaw in the summers, the Arctic Ocean will warm up, and submarine methane gas hydrates will be released on a large scale, without we can do nothing to stop this catastrophe. And it is possible that the effect will spread and also release the immense stores of carbon on the seabeds of the oceans around the world. Then we would find ourselves facing a scenario of probable Runaway Warming, with intense water vapor covering the planet. The IPCC studies do not consider this risk and it is urgent that they do so. If this can happen between 2025/30 we are almost out of time to act. Extreme measures must be applied, as happened with the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Drawdown Project defines what needs to be done in different areas. It says nothing about the form of global financing, how to coordinate global actions, it does not offer details about the reforestation plan and the necessary investment in fusion reactors, which are vital. It does not include social, economic and political reorganization in its list of possible solutions. They could be invited to join a broader and more ambitious Master Plan to Save the Planet.” William replied: “Your points are well taken.”
ACTIVATION OF THE CLATRATES RIFLE IN 2025/30
“The clathrate gun hypothesis is a scientific theory that rising sea temperatures can lead to a sudden release of methane from methane clathrate deposits on the ocean floor. This would cause environmental disruption of the oceans and the terrestrial atmosphere similar to what could have happened in the mass extinction of the Permian-Triassic, and in the thermal maximum of the Paleocene-Eocene”. (Wikipedia)
Can this happen? Let’s look at the data:
CO2 Concentration: The atmospheric concentration of CO2 measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii increased during 2015 by 3.05 parts per million (ppm). The current increase is 200 times faster than prehistoric records. What is worse, the atmospheric CO2 level is already (April 2022) at 417.21 ppm, with an average annual increase of 2.75 ppm. If this percentage is not raised further, by 2030 it will reach 445, 25ppm. But considering the escape of carbon and methane from permafrost and submarine clathrates, plus the overconsumption of fossil fuels, we will exceed 450 ppm before 2030 and cross the threshold of the dreaded 2ºC global average temperature.
Reduction of the floating ice of the North Pole: The floating ice of the North Pole accused in the period of greatest retreat (September) 8 million square kilometers. Today it has come to contain 3-4 million square kilometers and half the thickness of ice. Thus the summer ice has been reduced to a quarter of the volume it had in the seventies of the last century. There is practically no more multi-year ice, formed several years before with large ridges. Now almost all the ice forms during the current season and reaches an average thickness of 1.5 meters with small ridges. It is estimated that the ice that forms during a single winter will be able to melt completely in a single summer (2030). And immediately afterwards the albedo effect will disappear and the oceanic waters of the sector will start to warm up 5º C and may cause the release of the immense deposits of submarine methane gas hydrates. This will speed up heating by 25 to 500% depending on the magnitude of the release of gases.
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Permafrost thawing: Arctic permafrost is thawing rapidly. Doing so creates cliff-like sinkholes the size of multi-story buildings collapsed into the ground, where methane escapes. In the background you can see the bones of mammoths and other Pleistocene animals that remained frozen for thousands of years. According to some estimates, between 30% and 70% of the permafrost may thaw before 2100. Only 10% of the carbon that is released represents 150,000 million tons. Bacteria and viruses of already disappeared diseases are also released. In addition, the United States Geological Survey estimates that there is a total of 1,656,000 tons of mercury trapped in polar ice and permafrost, which is beginning to be transferred to the food chain due to thawing. The problem with permafrost is the increase in temperature in the Arctic. Three years ago the soil temperature was minus three degrees Celsius, after minus two, after minus one, now it is positive two degrees. With the aggravating circumstance that the permafrost now shows an active process of thawing throughout the year. Before, many thought that a maximum of 10% of permafrost would be lost in a period of 80 years. But everything is speeding up when the active layer stops freezing in winter. The added heat allows microbes that consume organic matter in the soil to continue to work, emitting carbon dioxide and methane year-round. Winter heat is melting permafrost more rapidly, and the whole process is accelerating at an unpredictable rate. Across the planet, permafrost harbors 1,600 gigatons of carbon, almost twice as much as is present in the atmosphere. Currently, permafrost covers one fifth of the earth’s surface, mainly Greenland, Alaska, Canada and Russia. In total, the IPCC estimates that between 37% and 81% of current permafrost will be lost to global warming.
Submarine methane gas hydrates: The East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is the largest and shallowest shelf in the world’s ocean with a mean depth of around 50 m. With an area of 2,000,000 square kilometers, hosting the largest deposit of permafrost and methane gas hydrates on the seabed. Doctors Shakhova and Semiletov study the sector and warn about its high instability. They indicate that when the permafrost layer is lost, the release of methane will begin. Natural warming added to anthropogenic, cause permafrost degradation processes at levels that have never been seen before. They explain that in some places in the ESAS the submarine permafrost is reaching the thawing point, which can lead to increasing methane emissions, going from a linear trend to an exponential one, determining a turning point depending on the level of warming reached. Once the cork-acting permafrots have thawed, the submarine clathrate deposits will begin to be released. The scientists indicate that within the ESAS 200,000 square kilometers are currently critical, since methane emissions are already observed. It has been found that the underwater permafrost of the Siberian Arctic is already losing 14 centimeters per year, a greater loss than terrestrial permafrost. The retroactions have already started. Arctic permafrost stores nearly 2 trillion tons of organic carbon, nearly half of all organic carbon stored in Earth’s soils. His release represents a great iaccelerating impact on global warming. If the temperature increases by 2ºC 40% of the permafrost will thaw which will release methane gas which in turn will further increase the temperature and release more methane causing a positive feedback.
What explosive cocktail do we have then?: On the one hand, the threshold of 450 ppm of CO2 will be reached in 2030 and the global average temperature may reach 2º C, then the floating ice of the North Pole will thaw completely during the summers. Ipso facto, the waters of the Arctic Ocean, as the albedo effect is no longer present, will warm up and may increase up to 5ºC, which is what is needed for the immense submarine clathrate deposits to be released abruptly. This describes a chain reaction for 2030. But, taking into account that there is already an active process of accelerating Arctic permafrost thawing, with the release of methane gas, which contributes to atmospheric warming and has begun a decade ago, the release of methane gas hydrates, the turning point for a phase change in the entire global ecosystem, we could place it between 2025/27. This is based on the fact that the floating ice at the North Pole is reduced by 50 to 70%, allowing part of the Arctic waters to warm up 5º C. Once the clathrate rifle is started, there is no human power that can stop it. And the problems do not stop there, if the chain reaction is intense enough, the immense carbon deposits in all the ocean beds of the world can be destabilized and the global temperature of the planet rise ~6/8º C or more, starting a warming process runaway, with vaporization of seawater and a multiplied greenhouse effect, the final consequence of which will be to push the surface temperature of the entire planet towards 100º C. The result?: the extinction of all known forms of life. Moving to a barren planet Earth like Venus is.
The Facts: “In September 2008, scientists aboard a Russian ship claimed evidence that millions of tons of methane are escaping into the atmosphere from the Arctic seabed, discovering intense concentrations of methane in several areas covering thousands of square kilometers of the Siberian continental shelf”. (Wikipedia). “The release of methane in these inaccessible regions seems to indicate that the permafrost layer is starting to break down, allowing the gas to escape. We have found elevated levels of methane at the sea surface and even higher at certain depths.” Örjan Gustafsson, Head of the scientific team of the ship ‘Jacob Smirnitskyi’.
The clathrate rifle hypothesis is not contemplated until today (November 2020) by the IPCC. Nor have hundreds of thousands of scientists sounded the alarm. In the article “World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency” signed by 11,000 scientists, under the direction of William J. Ripple, it is stated that “Scientists have a moral obligation to clearly warn humanity of any catastrophic and of “telling it like it is.” Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge, on the reason why the IPCC is not considering the issue, believes it is because they “don’t want to cause panic”.
Before, many thought that a maximum of 10% of permafrost would be lost in a period of 80 years. “Many of our hypotheses are falling apart,” says Róisín Commane, an atmospheric chemist at Columbia University who tracks carbon emissions by plane. In total, the IPCC estimates that between 37% and 81% of current permafrost will be lost to global warming.
This clathrate rifle hypothesis for the period 2025/30 misplaces us all as humanity. It leaves us with no time to act. The mitigation measures planned in the medium and long term are no longer useful. Promises of solutions in 20, 40 and 60 years such as those announced by the Drawdown Project are obsolete. Measures are required to cut pollution effectively and drastically immediately.
What measures to implement?: Prohibit individual combustion cars in all cities of the world, cut off the electricity supply after 8:00 p.m., reduce the operation of thermoelectric plants, reduce air flights by 80%, prohibit tourism, reduce consumption to a minimum, reduce meat intake and replace it with vegetables, stop felling trees and move to planting 30 billion new trees per year, invest capital intensive in the development of fusion reactors, avoid travel , limit overpopulation by authorizing only one child per family. And in the face of an emergency, apply a comprehensive reengineering of the world’s social, economic and political organization system, adding a coordinating supranational structure: the Eco Planetary Government, controlled by a system of Direct Digital Democracy, advised by a Council of Sciences, made up of scientists from all continents. And above all, allocate sufficient intensive capital funds to address the global climate emergency in a critical phase. Already the speeches of environmental politicians, of climate scientists with their graphs, have gone to hell, they have been devoured by the new reality of the catastrophe in process.
When should it be done?: Immediately, there is no more time to act preventively. Pollution must be stopped abruptly and at the same time implement medium and long-term measures that allow the future extraction of atmospheric CO2 to stop its inertia of warming. In addition to sustaining the rhythm of the economic system working so that it does not decline.
What are the chances of this actually happening?: This hypothesis has a 5 to 50% chance of being fulfilled within the aforementioned period. Likewise, in the face of deniers, scientists must provide irrefutable empirical data that refute this possibility. Otherwise, support this warning, collaborate and help the world society to prepare for what is to come.
During the last five years, the planet has entered into an active process of positive feedback involving 4 natural systems and 3 anthropogenic systems. These are:
Thawing of the floating ice at the North Pole and reduction of the albedo effect, thereby warming the waters of the Arctic Ocean and melting more ice and permafrost. What accelerates the melting of the massive glaciers of Greenland and the oceanic rise.
Acceleration of permafrost thawing, with release of carbon and methane gas into the atmosphere and start of the release of clathrates or submarine methane gas hydrates on the Arctic shelf.
Increasingly massive and intense natural forest fires in Siberia, the United States, Europe, Australia, Alaska, Canada, Africa and the Amazon, caused by droughts and heat waves. This reduces the areas of continental CO2 sinks, which are released into the atmosphere, accelerating warming.
Anthropogenic forest fires, either due to burning prior to planting, felling, abandoning branches, or carelessness leaving poorly extinguished bonfires.
Anthropogenic pollution is around 40 gigatons of CO2 emissions in the world per year.
To this is added that the oceans are losing the capacity to absorb 31% of the CO2 generated by man. Between 1994 and 2007 they caught 34 gigatons (billion metric tons). Surfactants, an oily film that spreads on the surface of the water, reduces the exchange of carbon dioxide by up to 50%. As surface temperatures increase, this organic layer increases and causes a further decrease in the exchange of gases between the atmosphere and the oceans. As the effect increases, there will be an inertial increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.
Overpopulation, with 8,600 million inhabitants by 2030, puts pressure on the overconsumption of food and energy until the planet’s resources are exhausted and global warming is accelerated. There is a direct cause and effect relationship.
The combination of all these feedbacks will lead to rapid and uncontrolled heating, the negative impact of which can be compared to a thermonuclear war. To stop it, it is necessary to drastically reduce carbon dioxide emissions and, where possible, extract the surplus already released into the atmosphere. In 100 years we have released into the air what took 500 million years to accumulate in the subsoil in the form of oil.
RIPPLE AND WOLF STUDY
“Time is running out to avoid the worst effects of climate change,” the researchers from Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Exeter and other institutions said in the report recently published in the journal One Earth.
According to OSU’s William Ripple and Christopher Wolf, co-authors of the study, research on feedback loops needs to be “immediately and massively” boosted to help world leaders make climate policy.
“Many feedback loops significantly increase warming due to greenhouse gas emissions,” they noted.
“However, not all of these feedbacks are fully accounted for in climate models,” they noted.
In particular, they urged the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN climate expert group, to produce a special report on the effects of feedback loops and their potential “serious consequences.” .
“Once sufficient warming has occurred, feedbacks could ultimately cause the colapso from the Greenland ice sheet,” Wolf explained.
“Waiting until 2050 to achieve net-zero carbon emissions might be too late,” according to the authors.
And “in the long-term worst case, interactions between feedback loops could result in an irreversible change from the current state of Earth’s climate to a state that threatens the habitability of humans and other life forms,” they added.
POSSIBLE ANSWERS
How to act? I propose to redirect capital resources. Through the GlobalSolidarity.Live, GreenInterbanks.com and Microwindows.app portals, we are working to act preventively in time. However, we need the support of scientific groups and businessmen.
This report supports what was sustained through my previous notes and the urgency of activating the scientific team of the Gaia Team, so that they investigate, evaluate and determine the next threshold of climate anomie in a maximum time of 90 days. And then it is endorsed or refuted by the UN IPCC experts, also within a maximum period of 90 days, because our time is up. We have 5 years or less left to apply drastic cushioning measures on a planetary scale.
According to WMO predictions, we will break the threshold of 1.5 to 1.8º C in the next 5 years. Then great intercontinental structural droughts can occur. As a consequence, half of the world’s population can die of hunger as the few food reserves run out.
My priority concern is the possible activation of the “clathrate gun” at the North Pole. To measure this risk, I have put together the Gaia Tea scientific research team. To activate it requires a million dollars of financing. This scientific report is urgently needed. We are against the clock. A world where more than a hundred million dollars are paid for the purchase of a soccer player and nobody wants to donate a million dollars to save the entire planet is counterintuitive.
We must avoid breaking the threshold of 1.5º C and 2º C. We cannot allow it. For this we can activate the SCoPEx project and apply new climate adaptation adjustment measures, taking zero carbon emissions as a goal for 2030.
Let us work together and in a cooperative and coordinated manner to save 8 billion human beings from the foreseeable tragedy of accelerating global warming. Together everything is possible.
NEW PARAMETERS, NEW CLIMATE GOALS FOR 2030
To confirm the study by the Gaia Team, with the support of the international scientific team of the UN IPCC, that there is a greater than 5% probability that the “clathrate gun” will be activated at the North Pole, and positive feedbacks will push the ecosystem towards runaway warming, which will end with a surface temperature of 100ºC, making the planet uninhabitable, we must immediately activate drastic, coordinated, planned and synchronized climate mitigation countermeasures, globally.
The new deadline to reach zero carbon emissions is 2030. And there are only 5 years to complete the change over the entire energy park towards renewables and alternative energies, and replace the entire automotive fleet with electric and hydrogen vehicles.
It is possible to do it… Since 2019, when I published my first warning regarding the danger of positive feedbacks in exponential domino effect, accelerating global warming outside known limits and activating inflection points or phase changes of planetary thermoequilibrium of no return , I have had time to think and plan.
I have designed an emergency and alternative Master Plan to Save the Planet, on the new emerging variables. To put it into operation, everyone must cooperate: scientists, companies, governments and consumers. Working united and synchronized, all together, we will achieve it.
God does not want the extinction of life on Earth. But we as Humanity must do the work to save the planet, our families and ourselves by returning to harmony and balance with Mother Nature.
Everyone have Faith. God gives us a second chance at redemption… We will make it!
The worst mistake we are making is believing that we have time to avoid the worst…
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