The melting of the glacier of the Apocalypse accelerates
The oceans can rise 30 cm. but in addition, adjacent glaciers can collapse and the waters rise another 3 meters, causing 900 million environmental refugees in all coastal cities.
When I wrote in 2009 that ocean waters could rise 30 centimeters by 2030 and several meters by 2050, I was branded an alarmist. Now the facts, unfortunately, are proving me right.
Two scientific teams analyzed the rate of melting of the Thwaites Glacier, or Glacier of the Apocalypse, using an Icefin robotic vehicle. Thus they were able to observe its submerged part. They verified that inside between the cracks in the glacier, salt water and warm water enter and accelerate the melting. The Glacier is about the size of Florida and is located in West Antarctica. Part of what’s holding it in place is an ice shelf that juts out of the ocean’s surface.
The studies were carried out by scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) and Cornell University and the report published by the journal Nature. The increase in water temperature is accelerating the melting of the glacier, which has retreated 16 km in the last 30 years. Now leaving a greater surface area exposed to hot salty water. Added to this is the Tidal Pumping effect, where the ice rises when the tide rises, facilitating a greater flow of water to flow below.
The computer models that analyzed and predicted this thaw were wrong, this thaw is taking place in milder conditions than those estimated. If the environmental conditions worsen, that is, if the global average temperature increases by 1.5º C or 2º C, the melting will accelerate even more.
If this immense mass of ice melts, the oceans will rise more than 30 cm. But its melting can cause a domino effect and accelerate the melting of neighboring glaciers. Then the oceans would rise another 3 meters. This would cause the displacement of between 600 and 900 million people who live in coastal cities around the world, creating a catastrophe of global magnitude that we could not face.
Source: .Allarme Antartide, il ghiacciaio dell’apocalisse si sta sciogliendo troppo rapidly (urban-life.it)
ACTIVATION OF THE CLATRATES RIFLE IN 2025/30
“The clathrate gun hypothesis is a scientific theory that rising sea temperatures can lead to a sudden release of methane from methane clathrate deposits on the ocean floor. This would cause environmental disruption of the oceans and the terrestrial atmosphere similar to what could have happened in the mass extinction of the Permian-Triassic, and in the thermal maximum of the Paleocene-Eocene”. (Wikipedia)
Can this happen? Let’s look at the data:
CO2 concentration: The atmospheric concentration of CO2 measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii increased during 2015 by 3.05 parts per million (ppm). The current increase is 200 times faster than prehistoric records. What is worse, the atmospheric CO2 level is already (April 2022) at 417.21 ppm, with an average annual increase of 2.75 ppm. If this percentage is not raised further, by 2030 it will reach 445.25 ppm. But considering the escape of carbon and methane from permafrost and submarine clathrates, plus the overconsumption of fossil fuels, we will exceed 450 ppm before 2030 and cross the threshold of the dreaded 2ºC global average temperature.
Reduction of the floating ice of the North Pole: The floating ice of the North Pole accused in the period of greatest retreat (September) 8 million square kilometers. Today it has come to contain 3-4 million square kilometers and half the thickness of ice. Thus the summer ice has been reduced to a quarter of the volume it had in the seventies of the last century. There is practically no more multi-year ice, formed several years before with large ridges. Now almost all the ice forms during the current season and reaches an average thickness of 1.5 meters with small ridges. It is estimated that the ice that forms during a single winter will be able to melt completely in a single summer (2030). And immediately afterwards the albedo effect will disappear and the oceanic waters of the sector will start to warm up 5º C and may cause the release of the immense deposits of submarine methane gas hydrates. This will speed up heating by 25 to 500% depending on the magnitude of the release of gases.
Permafrost thawing: Arctic permafrost is thawing rapidly. Doing so creates cliff-like sinkholes the size of multi-story buildings collapsed into the ground, where methane escapes. In the background you can see the bones of mammoths and other Pleistocene animals that remained frozen for thousands of years. According to some estimates, between 30% and 70% of the permafrost may thaw before 2100. Only 10% of the carbon that is released represents 150,000 million tons. Bacteria and viruses of already disappeared diseases are also released. Besides the The United States Geological Survey estimates that there is a total of 1,656,000 tons of mercury trapped in polar ice and permafrost, which is beginning to be transferred to the food chain as a result of thawing. The problem with permafrost is the increase in temperature in the Arctic. Three years ago the soil temperature was minus three degrees Celsius, after minus two, after minus one, now it is positive two degrees. With the aggravating circumstance that the permafrost now shows an active process of thawing throughout the year. Before, many thought that a maximum of 10% of permafrost would be lost in a period of 80 years. But everything is speeding up when the active layer stops freezing in winter. The added heat allows microbes that consume organic matter in the soil to continue to work, emitting carbon dioxide and methane year-round. Winter heat is melting permafrost more rapidly, and the whole process is accelerating at an unpredictable rate. Across the planet, permafrost harbors 1,600 gigatons of carbon, almost twice as much as is present in the atmosphere. Currently, permafrost covers one fifth of the earth’s surface, mainly Greenland, Alaska, Canada and Russia. In total, the IPCC estimates that between 37% and 81% of current permafrost will be lost to global warming.
Submarine methane gas hydrates: The East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) is the largest and shallowest shelf in the world’s ocean with a mean depth of around 50 m. With an area of 2,000,000 square kilometers, hosting the largest deposit of permafrost and methane gas hydrates on the seabed. Doctors Shakhova and Semiletov study the sector and warn about its high instability. They indicate that when the permafrost layer is lost, the release of methane will begin. Natural warming added to anthropogenic, cause permafrost degradation processes at levels that have never been seen before. They explain that in some places in the ESAS the submarine permafrost is reaching the thawing point, which can lead to increasing methane emissions, going from a linear trend to an exponential one, determining a turning point depending on the level of warming reached. Once the cork-acting permafrots have thawed, the submarine clathrate deposits will begin to be released. The scientists indicate that within the ESAS 200,000 square kilometers are currently critical, since methane emissions are already observed. It has been found that the underwater permafrost of the Siberian Arctic is already losing 14 centimeters per year, a greater loss than terrestrial permafrost. The retroactions have already started. Arctic permafrost stores nearly 2 trillion tons of organic carbon, nearly half of all organic carbon stored in Earth’s soils. Its release represents a major accelerating impact on global warming. If the temperature increases by 2ºC 40% of the permafrost will thaw which will release methane gas which in turn will further increase the temperature and release more methane causing a positive feedback.
What explosive cocktail do we have then?: On the one hand, the threshold of 450 ppm of CO2 will be reached in 2030 and the global average temperature may reach 2º C, then the floating ice of the North Pole will thaw completely during the summers. Ipso facto, the waters of the Arctic Ocean, as the albedo effect is no longer present, will warm up and may increase up to 5ºC, which is what is needed for the immense submarine clathrate deposits to be released abruptly. This describes a chain reaction for 2030. But, taking into account that there is already an active process of accelerating Arctic permafrost thawing, with the release of methane gas, which contributes to atmospheric warming and has begun a decade ago, the release of methane gas hydrates, the turning point for a phase change in the entire global ecosystem, we could place it between 2025/27. This is based on the fact that the floating ice at the North Pole is reduced by 50 to 70%, allowing part of the Arctic waters to warm up 5º C. Once the clathrate rifle is started, there is no human power that can stop it. And the problems do not stop there, if the chain reaction is intense enough, the immense carbon deposits in all the ocean beds of the world can be destabilized and the global temperature of the planet rise ~6/8º C or more, starting a warming process runaway, with vaporization of seawater and a multiplied greenhouse effect, the final consequence of which will be to push the surface temperature of the entire planet towards 100º C. The result?: the extinction of all known forms of life. Moving to a barren planet Earth as es Venus.
The Facts: “In September 2008, scientists aboard a Russian ship claimed evidence that millions of tons of methane are escaping into the atmosphere from the Arctic seabed, discovering intense concentrations of methane in several areas covering thousands of square kilometers of the Siberian continental shelf”. (Wikipedia). “The release of methane in these inaccessible regions seems to indicate that the permafrost layer is starting to break down, allowing the gas to escape. We have found elevated levels of methane at the sea surface and even higher at certain depths.” Örjan Gustafsson, Head of the scientific team of the ship ‘Jacob Smirnitskyi’.
The clathrate rifle hypothesis is not contemplated until today (November 2020) by the IPCC. Nor have hundreds of thousands of scientists sounded the alarm. In the article “World Scientists Warning of a Climate Emergency” signed by 11,000 scientists, under the direction of William J. Ripple, it is stated that “Scientists have a moral obligation to clearly warn humanity of any catastrophic and of “telling it like it is.” Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge, on the reason why the IPCC is not considering the issue, believes it is because they “don’t want to cause panic”.
Before, many thought that a maximum of 10% of permafrost would be lost in a period of 80 years. “Many of our hypotheses are falling apart,” says Róisín Commane, an atmospheric chemist at Columbia University who tracks carbon emissions by plane. In total, the IPCC estimates that between 37% and 81% of current permafrost will be lost to global warming.
This clathrate rifle hypothesis for the period 2025/30 misplaces us all as humanity. It leaves us with no time to act. The mitigation measures planned in the medium and long term are no longer useful. Promises of solutions in 20, 40 and 60 years such as those announced by the Drawdown Project are obsolete. Measures are required to cut pollution effectively and drastically immediately.
What measures to implement?: Prohibit individual combustion cars in all cities of the world, cut off the electricity supply after 8:00 p.m., reduce the operation of thermoelectric plants, reduce air flights by 80%, prohibit tourism, reduce consumption to a minimum, reduce meat intake and replace it with vegetables, stop felling trees and move to planting 30 billion new trees per year, invest capital intensive in the development of fusion reactors, avoid travel , limit overpopulation by authorizing only one child per family. And in the face of the emergency, apply a comprehensive reengineering of the world’s social, economic and political organization system, adding a coordinating supranational structure: the Planetary Eco Government, controlled by a system of Direct Digital Democracy, advised by a Council of Sciences, integrated by scientists from all continents. And above all, allocate sufficient intensive capital funds to address the global climate emergency in a critical phase. Already the speeches of environmental politicians, of climate scientists with their graphs, have gone to hell, they have been devoured by the new reality of the catastrophe in process.
When should it be done?: Immediately, there is no more time to act preventively. Pollution must be stopped abruptly and at the same time implement medium and long-term measures that allow the future extraction of atmospheric CO2 to stop its inertia of warming. In addition to sustaining the rhythm of the economic system working so that it does not decline.
What are the chances of this actually happening?: This hypothesis has a 5 to 50% chance of being fulfilled within the aforementioned period. Likewise, in the face of deniers, scientists must provide irrefutable empirical data that refute this possibility. Otherwise, support this warning, collaborate and help the world society to prepare for what is to come.
How to act? Capital resources must be redirected. Through the GlobalSolidarity.Live, GreenInterbanks.com and Microwindows.app portals, we are working to act preventively in time. However, we need the support of scientific groups and businessmen.
My priority concern is the possible activation of the “clathrate gun” at the North Pole. To measure this risk, I have set up the scientific research team of the Gaia Team, so that within a period of 90 days it prepares the report and then the IPCC confirms or refutes it, also within a maximum period of 90 days. We no longer have time to waste. For the Gaia Team a million dollars of financing is required. This scientific report is urgently needed ico. We are against the clock. A world where more than a hundred million dollars are paid for the purchase of a soccer player and nobody wants to donate a million dollars to save the entire planet is counterintuitive.
We must avoid breaking the threshold of 1.5º C and 2º C. We cannot allow it. For this we can activate the SCoPEx project and apply new climate adaptation adjustment measures, taking zero carbon emissions as a goal for 2030.
Let us work together and in a cooperative and coordinated manner to save 8 billion human beings from the foreseeable tragedy of accelerating global warming. Together everything is possible.
The worst mistake we are making is believing that we have time to avoid the worst…
Please read the note: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/upcoming-prolonged-drought-could-cause-continental-crop-gomes/?
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